In this article, Elena Genesca Pont examines the resilience of the color cosmetic category in times of economic crises, how the pandemic upset the pattern, and what the future holds for the sector. She also offers insight into success drivers and inspiration for cosmetic formulators to leverage the new color trends.
Lipstick sales have historically survived in times of economic gloom, a trend traced back to the Great Depression and continued during World War II and the ups and downs of the post-war years. More than just a cosmetic, lipstick became a powerful symbol of morale, a small yet significant way for women to enjoy a luxurious treat and bring a splash of color to dark days. The term lipstick index was first coined by economists in the recession of the 1970s when they noted how sales stayed resilient when times were tough. Estee Lauder chairman Leonard Lauder rechristened it the 'lipstick effect' in 2001 when lipstick sales took an upturn as the economy plunged. They wobbled during the 2008 crisis and plummeted during the pandemic. However, when widened to include skincare and other beauty products, the 'lipstick effect' still holds true as an indicator of our desire to indulge ourselves and find small joys in challenging circumstances.
With the closure of stores, salons, and spas, and the widespread adoption of masks, consumer behavior underwent a significant change. The digital space exploded, and the demand for at-home solutions skyrocketed. Health and hygiene took center stage, and the concept of beauty expanded beyond mere appearance, becoming interlinked with mental health and self-care. Consumers also became increasingly conscious of the environmental impact of their purchases, leading to a growing preference for clean, sustainable beauty options. Skincare, rather than lipstick, emerged as the preferred form of comfort and self-indulgence in an uncertain world. As the pandemic progressed, many embraced a 'less is more' philosophy, seeking out simplified routines and multipurpose products that were efficient and effective. The beauty industry responded by rising to these new challenges, demonstrating its resilience and adaptability and cementing its power to comfort, express, and connect at a deeper level than the superficial.
There have been differing hypotheses on which trends will prevail post-pandemic and to what extent and how fast the color cosmetic sector will recover. Here, we look at the retail sales development and the consumer trends driving the comeback.
According to Euromonitor, the color cosmetics category is on a promising trajectory, set to return to pre-pandemic consumption levels in terms of volume by 2024-2025. The overall value of the category in 2023 has already reached similar levels to its peak in 2019. North America is leading the way in terms of recovery of the value of the category, although it is slightly behind on volume. Premiumization in the sector and the skinification of color cosmetics, blurring the lines between makeup, skin and suncare, seem to be the main reasons behind this discrepancy between volume and value. Social media and influencer-driven campaigns, particularly on TikTok, are helping to drive the recovery and capture a new generation of makeup consumers. So, the category's future looks bright, with 3% y-o-y growth forecasted in volume and 6,5% y-o-y growth in value for the next four years, creating a significant opportunity for those that can cater to the new consumers' makeup usage habits.
The eye makeup sector was least affected by the pandemic and has remained steady, while lip care sales have bounced back as we cast off face masks. According to Euromonitor, lip products are expected to register a 5% value CAGR (at constant 2021 prices) to reach EUR226.1 million in 2026. The category has embraced the skinification trend, with lip oils, balms, and glosses that offer color and hydration benefits gaining popularity. Skincare and makeup hybrids are also delivering innovation in the face category, catering to consumers' preference for a more natural appearance and a focus on achieving a healthy, radiant complexion rather than heavy coverage. Euromonitor (World Market on Beauty & Personal Care Report 2024) reports a global demand for makeup formulations with skin health benefits, two-in-one foundation concealer products, and facial primers. According to Mintel (UK Color Cosmetic Report 2024), blush is making a surprising comeback in 2024, promoting microtrends like ballet core and tomato girl, the type of flush you get from a barre class or the red rosiness of the fruit itself!
Interest in simplifying routines, seeking value in purchases, and focusing on sustainability has survived and thrived post-pandemic, so brands need to adapt to the new normal. Skinification and the demand for multifunctional products will drive innovation in the color cosmetics category, as consumers seek added benefits from their makeup products, such as SPF, moisturizing, age-prevention, and anti-acne claims. Multifunctional products will also appeal during the current cost-of-living crisis and will support consumers wanting to simplify their routines. Brands can rethink their formulation strategies to create versatile formulas.
Get inspired by our on-trend makeup formulations La Vie en Rose Creamy Matte Lipstick – a long-wear lipstick formulated with over 40% ethically sourced shea, offering supreme comfort, color and hydration.
Elegant Elderberry Conditioning Lip Gloss - based on fully traceable, climate-compensated shea emollients and a natural colorant derived from juicy elderberry fruits, this minimal 3-in-1 formulation delivers a hint of color, a hi-gloss finish, and rich moisturizing benefits.
Candy Floss Blush Stick – a cream to matte tinted balm in a handy stick format. Designed to bring a soft flush of buildable color to cheeks, it can also double as a lip tint.
Matte Velvet Makeup Primer - this ultra-light complexion-perfector reduces shine and minimizes the appearance of pores, creating a smooth, flawless, and long-lasting base for makeup. Silicone-free and biodegradable, it’s kind to the skin and the planet.
Discover LIPEX® SheaSolve™, our hero ingredient for eco-ethical color cosmetics.
Derived from sustainable shea and containing 100% carbon from renewable sources, Lipex SheaSolve is a multifunctional natural-based ester produced using energy-saving catalysts and processes. Ideal for color cosmetics, it provides optimal pigment dispersion and wetting, creating low viscosity and homogeneous dispersions. It also delivers a more consistent color payoff, and an overall lighter skin feel to the final formulation. Read more and request a sample here.
References:
The US beauty market…. What’s happening? | in-cosmetics Connect
Is the horizon bright for color cosmetics? In-cosmetics connect.
The intersection of value, sustainability and skinification trends – Mintel
A year of innovation in color cosmetics, 2023 - Mintel
Euromonitor International 2023 data